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Opta supercomputer predicts Manchester City as Champions League favorites, Dortmund ahead of Atletico and Barcelona

The eight teams that will fight for the Champions League trophy on June 1 at Wembley are already known. But although they all start on equal terms for the draw on Friday, they do not all have the same chances of winning it.

Once the round of 16 is over, it is time to go to the Opta supercomputer, give it the name of the eight qualified teams and wait for its verdict.

And from the printed paper offered by The Analyst, it is easy to conclude that Manchester City is the clear favorite, but as you look down to read the list, your eyes may pop out of your head. For Opta (for its supercomputer in charge of making the predictions, actually), Barcelona and Atlético de Madrid are the two teams qualified for the quarterfinals that have the least chance of winning the title. Even less than Borussia Dortmund.

Atlético de Madrid, with a 4.19% chance, and Barcelona, with a 5.38%, are the two teams given the least chance of winning the Champions League. Borussia Dortmund, with a 5.62%, is placed above the two Spanish teams and takes away the label of ‘easy draw’. No surprises at the top. City has a 32.3% chance of winning the title again, with Real Madrid second (16.87%) and Arsenal third (13.09%). Mbappé’s PSG is fourth (11.8%), ahead of Bayern Munich (10.75%).

The draw will change everything

The data, the percentage of probabilities that Opta offers on its website, is both clean and misleading. The first thing is that it is read before the draw and reflects the options that the eight teams have at the starting line, on equal terms. The second thing is that the percentages will change as soon as the balls come out of the drum. Because it is not the same thing to get one team or another and that the path to the final is full of roses or thorns.

It is important to remember that, in addition to the quarterfinal pairings, the draw will also decide the semifinal pairings. So the three Spanish teams will know, in a short time, what their path to Wembley is. And that will be the time to redo the math and see if the draw has been benevolent and the options increase… or if the innocent hands complicate the dream for our teams.

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